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Add Calculation for Funded Ratio

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(@caroblover)
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Personally, I view the Funded Ratio as one of the most important Metrics for Retirement. It would be great to be able to calculate this analysis using Pralana. A good bit of the information is already present in the Models but a few additional inputs might be needed:

Already present:

- Min Expenses Cashflow

- Desired Expenses Cashflow

What I think needs to be added

- Legacy Amounts for Beneficiaries

- LTC Self Funding Buffer and Time

- General Buffer and Time

- Discount Rate (I use 30 year Treasury Rate, but other rates may also be valid)

Hope this makes sense.

A sample calculation approach is available in this discussion, https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=392120



   
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(@jkandell)
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Posted by: @caroblover

Personally, I view the Funded Ratio as one of the most important Metrics for Retirement. It would be great to be able to calculate this analysis using Pralana. A good bit of the information is already present in the Models but a few additional inputs might be needed

@caroblover, I too base my finances on a "bottom up" lifecycle model, and I too utilize the Funded Ratio. (I retired last year based on finally achieving a funded ratio of 1.54. Go baby!)
Pralana does not currently directly accommodate this model, beyond calculating consumption smoothed withdrawal and an idiosyncratic version of actuarial withdrawal. But I use the downloaded Income and Expense excel sheets from the program to calculate things on my own. (That is, Savings portfolio + sum of income column / total essential expenses column.)
A "quick and dirty" way in Pralana to evaluate two withdrawal methods or roth conversions within the lifecycle framework is to (1) enter phased essential expenses in "withdraw specified expenses only" with enough to cover your essential expenses, then (2) perform two runs of "consumption smoothing", once for a each option you're exploring, and see which leaves the larger smoothed addition (i.e. your yearly discretionary withdrawal amount). This would be as a replacement for Pralana's optimization of End of Life Value.
But for more detailed lifecycle analysis I iterate between Pralana and TPAW (which, unlike Pralana, is based around the lifecycle/actuarial method): I utilize Pralana to calculate my year-by-year "essential expenses" and "total income" inputs needed for tpawplanner.com. These entries allows TPAW to generate for me a safe discretionary withdrawal amount ("general spending") in its monte carlo, that I then use as the entry for Pralana's non-essential phased expense on top of my essential phased expense. (TPAW planner calculates the funded ratio, too.) I then rerun Pralana with this refined discretionary phased expense, to explore roth conversions, withdrawal priorities, etc. In other words, I use each program to its strengths.

Already present:

- Min Expenses Cashflow

- Desired Expenses Cashflow

What I think needs to be added

- Legacy Amounts for Beneficiaries

- LTC Self Funding Buffer and Time

- General Buffer and Time

The legacy amount for beneficiaries is already in Pralana. All of the optimizations and tabular tables show the final amount left over, by choice or inefficiency, at the end. You might want to discount this by the 30y TIPs rate on your own, of course. The LTC amounts are in there too. If you want to reserve them you can create a Miscellaneous or Phases essential expense.

With regard to the other buckets used in the bogleheads thread you cited; you can easily set up separate accounts in Pranala for each goal, e.g. one account for LTC self-pay, one for expenses prior to social security, one for fun money, etc. (This would be Build > Advanced Portfolio Modeling > Option 1.)

- Discount Rate (I use 30 year Treasury Rate, but other rates may also be valid)

For the "Total present value" results needed by the lifecycle model, note that in Pralana you don't need to discount the values like you normally would with the Funded ratio/time value of money, since Pralana is a closed system and automatically reinvests any dollar not withdrawn. Amounts withdrawn in a year are normally spent on essentials like taxes or food or discretionary items like travel and movies (rather than being reinvested by your or others). So, assuming you're using real dollars for everything, all you need to do for FP is sum up the Pralana columns for essential spending, discretionary/variable spending and your future social security/pensions, etc and add it to your savings portfolio. Same with any other buckets. (Any leftover amount after death might be discounted at the 30y TIPs rate, though, since it would have been used for other purposes.)

But, cutting to the chase, there are limits to how far Pralana can bend for those of us more concerned with bottom up investment style. There is currently a proposed new feature users can vote on to allow a Fixed Income Portfolio of individual bonds and CDS, which is a common way in lifecycle model for creating a liability matching portfolio.

And on a related matter, I have made the suggestion to add to Pralana's monte carlo run results tables, the Average Spending (and Average variable spending) over the course of the whole plan. Lifecycle investing cares more about consumption during the plan as it does the End of Life value. Most people value both, and Pralana could accommodate both concerns with just a few columns added to some tables, and a funded ratio could be added too.


This post was modified 2 months ago 4 times by Jonathan Kandell

   
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 JLee
(@jlee)
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Posted by: @caroblover

Personally, I view the Funded Ratio as one of the most important Metrics for Retirement. It would be great to be able to calculate this analysis using Pralana.

I agree that adding Funded Ratio would be a win for Pralana. I used both "bottom up" and "top down" approaches before deciding to retire.



   
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(@caroblover)
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Posts: 38
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@jkandell Seems like we have a similar approach and find value in the Funded Ratio.

I don’t think Pralana currently manages Legacy quite the optimal way — it does a great deal but it could be better integrated.

I am new to the software and am not sure how a suggestion moves from an idea to an enhancement list for voting. I suspect lots of great ideas are being suggested and figuring out which is the most valuable is a challenge.

Thanks for the feedback …



   
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(@jkandell)
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Posts: 279
 

I’m curious how you two are using the funded ratio. I used it as a rough-guide to when I could retire, but don't use it much since: my focus has shifted to keeping 100% of npv of essential expenses in safe assets (like TIPs). So that "safely funded ratio" (and how much ls left for discretionary withdrawals) is more important to me than the "total funded ratio". Is that why it matters to you? Have you seen TPAWplanner.com? It’s very robust for a funded ratio framework, and completely free. It doesn't try to force a circle into a square.

Posted by: @caroblover
(and @jlee)

I don’t think Pralana currently manages Legacy quite the optimal way — it does a great deal but it could be better integrated.

I think this is a great suggestion to make the legacy amount more explicit. I was just noting you could still do it now, via a miscellaneous expense marked essential. But I think it would be quite easy to add a "legacy for heirs" in the build section, and many would value that.

I am new to the software and am not sure how a suggestion moves from an idea to an enhancement list for voting. I suspect lots of great ideas are being suggested and figuring out which is the most valuable is a challenge.

Users suggest features either within the program itself (using the feedback button at the top right of the ribbon). Or you also can suggest features in the forum section titled “new feature suggestion” or something like that.

I don't think there are enough of us who do lifestyle investing to warrant this addition, but you never know. You might want to think on which screens you'd want to see the funded ratio. One possibility is top of Tabular>Balancesheet. Another is, per my earlier comment, on the Analyze> Monte Carlo results page. Or on a new "lifecycle" page of its own that showed selective columns from the Income and Expense sheet, with Totals of spending and income, and the Funded ratio, and Ratio of Essentials covered by safe assets or LMP. I guess my preference is on the Monte Carlo results page.

I am not sure how Stuart and Charlie curate ideas; but quite a few end up for users to vote on under “More>Resources>Feature Voting” within the program itself.


This post was modified 2 months ago 6 times by Jonathan Kandell

   
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(@caroblover)
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Topic starter  

We use the Funded Ratio as a key metric to help assess our Retirement Plan.

Specifically:

- Do we need to adjust spending? Typically NEVER for a short term correction but we might need to for a longer term correction. We also use TIPs for a Cashflow Bridge till SS.

- Can we afford to splurge on this? We recently moved and had to decide how much house we could afford (we upgraded our Retirement home)

- Can we afford to give more to our Heirs or Charity Now?

Plus

Calculating the Funded Ratio provides great insight in to the Time-Risk-Spend requirements of various parts of our plan. This directly ties into how we create our AA since it's a very helpful analysis for our Need and Ability to take on Risk. This lets us focus solely on our Willingness to take on Risk .

Hope this helps ...



   
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