Here is a good review on what will happen to ACA (Obama Care) for 2026. It also includes a premium calculator:
When you qualify for a tax credit, that amount is determined by a sliding scale. The government says that based on your income, you are supposed to pay this percentage of your income toward the Second Lowest-Cost Silver Plan in your area. The government will take care of the rest after you pay that amount.
If you pick a less expensive policy than the Second Lowest-Cost Silver Plan, you keep 100% of the savings, up to the point you get the policy for free. If you choose a more expensive policy than the Second Lowest-Cost Silver Plan, you pay 100% of the difference.
The Sliding Scale
That sliding scale is called the Applicable Percentages Table. The applicable percentages were lowered significantly between 2021 and 2025. It reduced the amount that many people pay for their ACA health insurance. These percentages will go up sharply in 2026.
Here are the applicable percentages for different income levels in 2025 and 2026:
| Income | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| < 133% FPL | 0% | 2.1% |
| 133% – 150% FPL | 0% | 3.14% – 4.19% |
| 150% – 200% FPL | 0% – 2% | 4.19% – 6.6% |
| 200% – 250% FPL | 2% – 4% | 6.6% – 8.44% |
| 250% – 300% FPL | 4% – 6% | 8.44% – 9.96% |
| 300% – 400% FPL | 6% – 8.5% | 9.96% |
| > 400% FPL | 8.5% | Unlimited |
Source: IRS Rev. Proc. 2024-35, Rev. Proc. 2025-25.
Calculator
I created a calculator that shows how much you can expect to pay toward a Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan in your area in 2025 and 2026. This doesn’t include the relative price changes between the plan you choose and the benchmark plan. You’ll pay extra if the price for your plan increases more than the benchmark plan, or less than the amount shown if the price for your plan goes up less than the benchmark plan.
Check out the link for the actual calculator (see below for link):
https://thefinancebuff.com/aca-premium-tax-credit-percentages.html
I labelled this thread a little to fast. For 2025, if you are receiving an ACA subsidy, what happens if your MAGI at the end of the year exceeds what you estimated it would be when you first signed up? Guantanamo? Not quite (at least not yet 😏). You have to pay back the subsidy amount you should not have gotten, but the amount is capped:
The ACA health insurance subsidy, aka the premium tax credit, is set up such that, for the most part, it doesn’t matter how much subsidy you receive upfront when you enroll. The upfront subsidy is only an estimate. The final subsidy will be squared up when you file your tax return next year.
If you didn’t receive the subsidy when you enrolled but your actual income qualifies, you get the subsidy as a tax credit when you file your tax return. If the government paid more subsidies than your actual income qualifies for, you pay back the difference on your tax return.
Repayment Cap
There’s a cap on how much you need to pay back. The cap varies depending on your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) relative to the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) and your tax filing status. It’s also adjusted for inflation each year. Here are the caps on paying back the subsidy for 2025 and 2026.
| MAGI | 2025 Coverage | 2026 Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| < 200% FPL | Single: $375 Other: $750 | No Cap |
| < 300% FPL | Single: $975 Other: $1,950 | No Cap |
| < 400% FPL | Single: $1,625 Other: $3,250 | No Cap |
| >= 400% FPL | No Cap | No Cap |
Source: IRS Rev. Proc. 2024-40.
The new 2025 Trump tax law eliminated the repayment cap, effective in 2026, regardless of income. 2025 is the last year that a repayment cap still applies.
https://thefinancebuff.com/pay-back-aca-health-insurance-subsidy-tax-credit-cap.html
I took the table that @Pizzaman posted from https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-25-25.pdf and turned them into a graph to help folks start planning.
(FPL ratio along the bottom, resulting % of income they expect you pay along the y axis.)
That 9.96% range is pretty wide, not to mention the 4x cliff!
