In the Historical Analysis tab, Under the Historic Asset Class, I'm not seeing anything for international equity returns. Does that mean I have to input my own numbers to include an international asset class to perform a Historical Analysis (given I have international stock index in my portfolio)?
@gbjordan222 Yes. You have to map all of your asset classes to some historical asset class. Pralana doesn't contain international equity returns in its database so you will need to provide that yourself.
Stuart
FWIW, I used the returns listed at this site to map International returns: https://novelinvestor.com/historical-returns/
It only starts at 1970, though. For the periods before that, I have it roughly correlated to US stocks, but with an offset for slightly lower returns. If someone has Int'l market returns from 1926-1969 that they'd like to share, I'd be grateful.
Edit: Actually, I forgot that user Chris Zuiker linked to Early Retirement Now's tool that includes monthly returns for World Excluding US markets that go back to the 1800's. That can be found in this post: https://pralanaretirementcalculator.com/community/postid/6700/
I took those numbers, and summed up the annual returns for 1928-2024 in a CSV list that can be imported into Pralana to map to that asset class:
1928,38.91%,1929,-5.15%,1930,-18.84%,1931,-37.02%,1932,20.65%,1933,55.50%,1934,-1.61%,1935,37.64%,1936,28.17%,1937,-42.96%,1938,39.92%,1939,2.67%,1940,-7.41%,1941,-20.90%,1942,11.44%,1943,21.26%,1944,16.06%,1945,29.98%,1946,-23.02%,1947,-2.90%,1948,4.21%,1949,19.19%,1950,21.73%,1951,17.02%,1952,16.74%,1953,-1.27%,1954,44.02%,1955,27.96%,1956,4.61%,1957,-13.67%,1958,34.98%,1959,10.07%,1960,-0.09%,1961,23.65%,1962,-8.57%,1963,19.44%,1964,14.15%,1965,10.16%,1966,-13.24%,1967,19.06%,1968,6.61%,1969,-13.71%,1970,-18.52%,1971,26.95%,1972,31.93%,1973,-17.00%,1974,-30.28%,1975,23.90%,1976,-0.45%,1977,9.88%,1978,21.15%,1979,-1.41%,1980,12.82%,1981,-9.45%,1982,-2.35%,1983,18.84%,1984,0.94%,1985,38.66%,1986,52.42%,1987,20.50%,1988,21.47%,1989,7.59%,1990,-27.69%,1991,10.29%,1992,-14.63%,1993,27.11%,1994,5.58%,1995,9.36%,1996,3.86%,1997,2.04%,1998,17.86%,1999,23.17%,2000,-16.49%,2001,-23.63%,2002,-17.50%,2003,33.08%,2004,16.14%,2005,11.16%,2006,21.38%,2007,8.63%,2008,-51.65%,2009,30.23%,2010,9.85%,2011,-13.72%,2012,15.27%,2013,18.81%,2014,-4.16%,2015,-2.27%,2016,1.94%,2017,20.32%,2018,-15.77%,2019,19.44%,2020,9.84%,2021,5.74%,2022,-18.73%,2023,15.22%,2024,2.76%,
FWIW, I used the returns listed at this site to map International returns: https://novelinvestor.com/historical-returns/
It only starts at 1970, though. For the periods before that, I have it roughly correlated to US stocks, but with an offset for slightly lower returns. If someone has Int'l market returns from 1926-1969 that they'd like to share, I'd be grateful.
Edit: Actually, I forgot that user Chris Zuiker linked to Early Retirement Now's tool that includes monthly returns for World Excluding US markets that go back to the 1800's. That can be found in this post: https://pralanaretirementcalculator.com/community/postid/6700/
I took those numbers, and summed up the annual returns for 1928-2024 in a CSV list that can be imported into Pralana to map to that asset class
Be careful. The ERN data you cited also starts at 1970 for international. Jeske uses the US stock market data for international prior to that.
It only starts at 1970, though. For the periods before that, I have it roughly correlated to US stocks, but with an offset for slightly lower returns. If someone has Int'l market returns from 1926-1969 that they'd like to share, I'd be grateful.
There is excel data from Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298 that you can download here. It's a humbling article, btw. (Skinny: Historically and globally, stocks have not done better than real estate, both about 7% nominal.) The article has had a lasting influence on me, with a reality check on how unique our own investment lifetimes have been in the big picture.
Jorda et al have nominal figures for equities (as well as bonds and real estate) from 1870 for these countries: Australia, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy. From 1900 on: Australia, Belgium, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, UK, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, USA.
I translated all their returns into real dollars in my own excel file, but am not sure how to get you the data.
@jkandell I'm not sure if this is the right way to go about it, but...
If I download that dataset,
- pull out the eq_tr column for each country, from 1928-2020
- take the average of the returns for each year across all countries (excluding USA)
is that a legitimate result?
I see that those are nominal values, but Pralana uses nominal returns for the other asset classes in Historical Analysis.
Example, I calculate the 1928 average return to be 17.88%, and 1929 is -7.13%.
My results don't match ERN's values from 1970 onwards, though some years are close.
If that seems legit, I can post my CSV values for these results, like I did above.
