Housing - Real Appr...
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Housing - Real Appreciation Rate Source


NC Cpl
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Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 98
Topic starter  

Found this page which seems to have credible historical info. Bottom line is that if you plan to stay in home long term, real ROA will match inflation, suggesting leaving the cell in PRC blank. The author states:

"What does all of this information tell us about future home prices? Not much in the short-run, as the tables above clearly indicate. Anything can happen in any given year or 5-10 year period for that matter. Why?

There are a myriad of factors that can impact the housing market, including: the supply/demand for housing, affordability, inflation, economic/wage growth, availability of credit, mortgage rates, unemployment, demographics, location, etc., etc. The culmination of these factors can lead to wide differences in appreciation rates from one city to the next, particularly over shorter time periods.

For most homeowners who plan on staying in their house for 30 years or more, what they’ll likely find is an appreciation rate that doesn’t deviate all that much from the rate of inflation.

  • In the best 30 years for the housing market (1976-2005), real price appreciation averaged 2.2% per year.
  • In the worst 30 years for housing (1895-1924), real price appreciation averaged -2.0% per year."