Housing - Real Appr...
 
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Housing - Real Appreciation Rate Source

 

(@nc-cpl)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 123
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Found this page which seems to have credible historical info. Bottom line is that if you plan to stay in home long term, real ROA will match inflation, suggesting leaving the cell in PRC blank. The author states:

"What does all of this information tell us about future home prices? Not much in the short-run, as the tables above clearly indicate. Anything can happen in any given year or 5-10 year period for that matter. Why?

There are a myriad of factors that can impact the housing market, including: the supply/demand for housing, affordability, inflation, economic/wage growth, availability of credit, mortgage rates, unemployment, demographics, location, etc., etc. The culmination of these factors can lead to wide differences in appreciation rates from one city to the next, particularly over shorter time periods.

For most homeowners who plan on staying in their house for 30 years or more, what they’ll likely find is an appreciation rate that doesn’t deviate all that much from the rate of inflation.

  • In the best 30 years for the housing market (1976-2005), real price appreciation averaged 2.2% per year.
  • In the worst 30 years for housing (1895-1924), real price appreciation averaged -2.0% per year."

https://compoundadvisors.com/2020/homes-castles-and-price-expectations


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(@hines202)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 184
 

Renting vs owning can be a break-even proposition unless folks stay in the home for a long time. That's the problem though, life changes, people get the itch for something new/better, etc. That's why, with the huge expense of closing costs, etc, if you move every 5-7 years or so you may be better off just renting. We had decades of predictable straight-line housing appreciation, leading to truisms like "it's the best investment you can make", then 2008-2009 happened and we learned different. Real estate can be as bumpy a ride as the stock market, these days.


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