analysis.web1

This is the page from which you select a spending strategy and initiate Monte Carlo and historical analyses.  A pull-down menu near the bottom of the page allows you to select from a list of alternative strategies (with the primary strategy being to simply use the expenses as explicitly entered on other pages) and a large button near the top is how you tell PRC to do the analysis.  The analysis takes about 5 seconds on a modern home computer and the results are presented as you see below.  The wide range of possible long-term outcomes from the execution of 500 Monte Carlo test cases and the roughly 50 historical test cases are integrated into an intelligible diagram based on percentiles.  The blue bands reflect total savings for each of these ranges: 10th-20th percentile (at the bottom), 20th-30th, 30th-40th, 50th-60th, 60th-70th, 70th-80th and 80th-90th (at the top).  For comparison, the solid red line reflects the fixed rate projection of total savings.  The gray band reflects the total spending for the 10th to the 90th percentile of results and, again for comparison purposes, the dashed red line reflects the fixed rate projection of total spending.  The gray spending band can be hidden at the user’s discretion to make the blue bands fully visible.  Finally, there’s a small table on the lower right side of the page that presents the overall success rate for the final 10 years of the modeling period.

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ADVANCED PERSONAL FINANCIAL MODELING  |  MONTE CARLO & HISTORICAL ANALYSIS  |   INTERACTIVE WHAT-IF ANALYSIS